SKF CEO warns Middle East conflict hitting Swedish exports hard, indirect global effects even worse

• SKF CEO describes regional sales as 'extremely difficult to maintain' with product deliveries severely disrupted
• Indirect effects — shipping route disruptions, insurance costs, energy prices — are described as even greater than direct losses
• SKF is one of Sweden's most internationally exposed industrial firms, making it a bellwether for the broader manufacturing sector
• No public response yet from Swedish Trade and Industry Minister Ebba Busch on contingency planning for affected exporters

SKF's chief executive Rickard Gustafson has told Sveriges Radio Ekot that the Middle East conflict is having a "very large impact" on the company's operations. "The sales we have in the region are extremely difficult to maintain. We're struggling to get the products through," Gustafson said — a blunt assessment from the head of one of Sweden's most globally exposed industrial firms.

SKF, headquartered in Gothenburg, manufactures bearings and seals used in everything from wind turbines to automotive drivetrains. The company operates in over 130 countries and generates roughly 130 billion SEK in annual revenue. The Middle East and Africa together account for a modest share of total sales, but Gustafson's warning focused less on the direct revenue hit than on the cascading consequences. The indirect effects — disrupted shipping lanes, surging freight and insurance costs, and volatile energy prices — are, in his assessment, even larger than the regional losses themselves.

That distinction matters. The Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea corridor are arteries for global trade, and when they constrict, the cost ripples outward through every supply chain that touches them. Swedish manufacturers with complex global logistics — Atlas Copco, Sandvik, Alfa Laval — face the same chokepoints. All three companies have significant exposure to customers in the Gulf states and broader MENA region, and all depend on maritime shipping routes now under elevated risk. None have publicly detailed contingency plans for sustained route disruption, though rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope adds roughly two weeks and substantial cost per container to Europe-Asia trade.

For SKF specifically, the challenge is twofold. The company must find ways to physically deliver products to customers in conflict-adjacent markets — no small task when logistics infrastructure is degraded and insurance premiums spike — while simultaneously absorbing the margin pressure that higher global freight costs impose on every other market it serves. Ball bearings are essential components with limited substitutes; customers cannot simply wait indefinitely, but they can source from competitors with shorter or less disrupted supply chains.

Sweden's Trade and Industry Minister Ebba Busch (Christian Democrats) has not publicly addressed the export disruption facing Swedish industrials in the region. The Riksdag (Swedish parliament) has been largely silent on what, if any, state-level support or coordination is being offered to companies struggling with the logistics fallout. Sweden's export credit agency, EKN, provides insurance against political risks in volatile markets, but its instruments are designed for payment defaults, not for the physical impossibility of getting a shipment from Gothenburg to Riyadh.

The situation offers a useful stress test for Swedish industrial resilience. Sweden's manufacturing exporters have spent decades building global supply chains optimized for efficiency — minimal inventory, just-in-time delivery, centralized production. That model works beautifully when sea lanes are open and borders are stable. When they aren't, the cost of optimization becomes visible fast. SKF's CEO is, in effect, describing what happens when a finely tuned global machine meets a region where the rules of normal commerce have broken down.

Gustafson did not specify alternative routing plans or quantify the revenue at risk. What he did make clear is that the company is not treating this as a localized problem. The direct impact is painful; the indirect impact, he suggested, is the one that keeps him up at night. Swedish exporters with exposure to the same corridors would be wise to assume he is not exaggerating.

Källor: Sveriges Radio Ekot